That could very well be the Big Ten’s ultimate goal. Should the additional $250 million in the Big Ten’s contract - or the majority of it - be viewed as a jackpot set aside for a six-team Western division, with Stanford, Cal, Oregon and Washington joining USC and UCLA? If the media revenue is right and access to the College Football Playoff is acceptable, the school has zero reason to join the Big Ten. Notre Dame’s value and identity are, to a large extent, rooted in its status as an Independent. They are as Big Ten as Ohio State and Michigan, except for their century-old status as an Independent.īut will the Irish agree to the move when their current contract with NBC expires in three years? Our industry contacts are skeptical. The Irish have an immense national following and a huge alumni base in Chicago. Notre Dame has always been the Big Ten’s expansion priority. Reaction: This is the critical piece, so let’s start with some background. Item III: The Big Ten’s new media rights contract, worth approximately $7.5 billion over seven years, includes an escalator clause - in the event of membership expansion - that pushes the total value to $10 billion. Knight knows everybody worth knowing in both leagues.
Item II: Oregon representatives are talking with the Big Ten about “compatibility,” per the Action Network.Īny Pac-12 school that hasn’t reached out to other conferences is steering directly toward the iceberg.ĭoes anyone believe Nike founder Phil Knight, the only Oregon representative who truly matters, hasn’t reached out to key officials in the Big Ten and SEC about options for his school? Of course he has. The Pac-12’s media valuation isn’t substantially worse than the Big 12’s and, in fact, might be better, while the institutional fit (academics, location of alumni bases) clearly falls on the Pac-12’s side.
An exodus would unfold only if they have no reasonable choice. In our estimation, all four schools want to remain in the reconfigured Pac-12. Reaction: Sure, the university presidents would be naive to ignore any lifeboats on the horizon, but that doesn’t mean the Big 12 is their preference. Item I: The Four Corners schools are eyeing the Big 12.
Let’s address the topics in reverse order from the list above: Unless a competing media company steps to the negotiating table with a serious bid, ESPN will set its price and refuse to pay a dollar more.) In theory, that was a positive development for the beleaguered conference: Lacking Big Ten content across its networks, Disney seemingly would be motivated to partner with the Pac-12. And Oregon representatives can be talking to the Big Ten …Īnd the Four Corners schools can view the Big 12 as a viable option …Īnd the Pac-12 can remain intact for the foreseeable future.įrom our vantage point, nothing has changed for the Pac-12 in the two weeks since news broke that ESPN would not participate in the Big Ten’s next media rights contract, which begins next summer.
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